Previsão Combinada: Efeito da Amplitude de Variação de Dados e Enquadramentos de Contexto no Ponto de Ancoragens em Previsões
Palavras-chave:
Heurística, ponto de ancoragem, experimento controlado, enquadramento ganho/perda, fator humanoResumo
Não há dúvidas sobre a importância dos modelos quantitativa de previsão na gestão. Entretanto, em contextos incertos, os modelos matemáticos estabelecidos devem ser ajustados, já que as variáveis e parâmetros podem sofrer alterações em relação ao momento da concepção. Dado isso, os julgamentos humanos são necessários em atividades de previsão. Porém, sabe-se que os tomadores de decisão são limitados racionalmente, portanto, devendo recorrer à heurística para simplificar certas decisões. Em nosso estudo, investigamos, por meio de experimento controlado, como a amplitude da variação da demanda histórica e o enquadramento de ganho/perda do contexto podem afastar a decisão do ponto de ancoragem da previsão. Nossos resultados demonstraram que a amplitude de variação poderia influenciar negativamente o desvio em torno do ponto de ancoragem e nenhum efeito estatístico do enquadramento do contexto de negócios foi notado. A discussão detalhada segue no artigo.Downloads
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