Volatilidade Cambial em Tempos de COVID nos BRICS: Modelos ARDL e de Cointegração (FMOLS e DOLS)

Auteurs

  • Valdecy Caetano Universidade Federal de Uberlândia
  • Flavio Vilela Vieira Universidade Federal de Uberlândia

Résumé

O objetivo principal deste trabalho é desenvolver uma investigação empírica sobre a ocorrência de uma crise sanitária com dados de morte e casos de COVID e seus possíveis impactos na volatilidade cambial para os BRICS com dados diários de 20 de fevereiro de 2020 até 28 de fevereiro de 2022 utilizando modelos ARDL, MQO modificado e MQO dinâmico. Os resultados apontam que o aumento no número de casos e mortes confirmados está associado a menores níveis de volatilidade cambial indicando que houve ineficiência das políticas monetárias e fiscais no cenário de crise sanitária generalizada em direcionar fluxos de capitais, e como a crise da COVID é global, durante o período analisado ocorreu uma maior estabilidade cambial, ou seja, uma menor volatilidade cambial.

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Publiée

2024-06-18

Comment citer

Caetano, V., & Vilela Vieira, F. (2024). Volatilidade Cambial em Tempos de COVID nos BRICS: Modelos ARDL e de Cointegração (FMOLS e DOLS). Revista De Economia Mackenzie, 21(1), 119–142. Consulté à l’adresse http://editorarevistas.mackenzie.br/index.php/rem/article/view/16649

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