Cadeias Globais de Valor e Mudança Estrutural: Um Caminho para o Crescimento?
Palabras clave:
Cadeias Globais de Valor, Mudança estrutural, PMG ARDL, CausalidadeResumen
O presente artigo investiga a relação entre a inserção nas Cadeias Globais de Valor (CGV) e o deslocamento de mão de obra entre setores econômicos, resultando em mudanças estruturais. Para isso, é testada a hipótese de que a inserção nas CGVs contribui para a reestruturação das economias, dinamizando setores mais produtivos. Foram estimados modelos PMG ARDL para 29 países, majoritariamente em desenvolvimento, no período de 1995 a 2018. Para aumentar a robustez dos resultados, foram utilizados os testes de causalidade de Granger e Dumitrescu-Hurlin. Os resultados indicam que as três formas de inserção nas CGVs (para frente, para trás e total) exercem efeitos positivos na composição estrutural da economia. Os testes de causalidade corroboram os modelos PMG ARDL.
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Derechos de autor 2025 Valdecy Caetano, Flavio Vilela Vieira
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