Dívida Pública, PIB e Hiato do Produto (1994-2018): Modelos ARDL em Painel
Resumo
O artigo tem por objetivo investigar o papel da dívida pública no PIB e no hiato do produto, para 56 países de 1994 a 2018, utilizando modelos ARDL para painel. Os resultados indicam que os coeficientes de longo prazo para os modelos do PIB foram todos negativos para a dívida pública. Analisando os modelos do hiato do produto, os resultados de longo prazo indicam que a maioria das estimações da dívida pública foram estatisticamente significativas com sinais negativos. Quanto às estimações do modelo de correção de erro, o ajustamento em direção ao equilíbrio é mais rápido (lento) para o hiato (PIB). Os coeficientes de curto prazo para os modelos do PIB indicam sinal negativo e significância da variação da dívida pública para todos os modelos. Os resultados indicam que ocorre causalidade da dívida pública para o hiato, e na versão de Dumitrescu-Hurlin a causalidade é da dívida pública para o PIB.
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