Dívida Pública, PIB e Hiato do Produto (1994-2018): Modelos ARDL em Painel
Abstract
The present work main goal is to investigate the role of public debt for the GDP and output GAP for 56 countries from 1994 to 2018, using ARDL panel models. The empirical results indicate that the long run coefficients for the GDP models are all negative for the public debt, in other words. For the output GAP models, the long run analysis indicates that all estimation for the public debt are statistically significant with negative coefficients. For the estimation of the error correction models, the adjustment towards the equilibrium is faster (slower) for the output GAP (GDP). The short run estimated coefficients for the GDP models are all negative and significant for the change in public debt. The results indicate the existence of Granger causality from the public debt to output GAP with two and three lags, and in the Dumitrescu-Hurlin version, the causality runs from the public debt to GDP.
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