Ajuste fiscal: uma análise para o Brasil no período de 1999 a 2018

Authors

  • Ana Paula Fiori Moura Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa
  • Karlo Marques Junior Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa
  • Luma de Oliveira Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of fiscal adjustments on Brazilian macroeconomic dynamics between 1999 and 2018, employing a Vector Error Correction (VECM) model to analyze expenditure and revenue shocks. Estimates indicate that, while fiscal consolidation is not associated with large-scale, long-term recessions, the composition of the adjustment is crucial: consolidation through revenue increases proves more costly for economic activity and the debt trajectory than the alternative of expenditure reductions.

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Published

2025-12-03

How to Cite

Fiori Moura, A. P., Marques Junior, K., & de Oliveira , L. (2025). Ajuste fiscal: uma análise para o Brasil no período de 1999 a 2018. Revista De Economia Mackenzie, 22(2), 68–100. Retrieved from http://editorarevistas.mackenzie.br/index.php/rem/article/view/17975

Issue

Vol. 22 No. 2 (2025): Revista de Economia Mackenzie

Section

Artigos

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Copyright (c) 2025 karlo marques junior

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