Política industrial e internacionalização: um estudo dos efeitos da intervenção estatal na internacionalização brasileira
Keywords:
Política industrial; Exportações; Investimento Direto Estrangeiro; ARIMA. Análise de intervençãoAbstract
Industrial policies are crucial intervention mechanisms to stimulate the development of a local economy and to accelerate a country's globalization process. However, little is known about the effects of industrial policies on the internationalization process in developing economies, such as Brazil. This research aims to analyze the effects of state intervention through industrial policies on the internationalization of Brazilian companies in the period from 1982 to 2014. Considering integrated autoregressive moving average estimators (ARIMA), the results allowed us to identify that only the Industrial, Technological and Foreign Trade Policy (PITCE) contributed positively to stimulating the outflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the Productive Development Policy (PDP) showed a negative impact on FDI outflows. The results demonstrate the need for an alignment between industrial policies and the country's internationalization process.
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References
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Bianchi, P., & Labory, S. (2019). Manufacturing regimes and transitional paths: Lessons for industrial policy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 48, 24–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2017.10.003
Borgatto, A. F., & Sáfadi, T. (2000). Análise de intervenção em séries temporais: aplicações em transporte urbano. Revista Brasileira de Estatística, 61(215), 81-102. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1413-70542004000100019
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. (1976). Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Oakland: Holden-Day, 712 p.
Brandão, C. (2015). Processo de industrialização e disparidades inter-regionais no Brasil: a necessidade do diálogo entre as políticas industriais e as políticas regionais. In: Toni, J. de (Org.). Dez anos de política industrial: balanço e perspectivas. Brasília, DF: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial, 93-112.
Buckley, P. J., Clegg, J., & Wang, C. (2010). Is the relationship between inward FDI spillover effects linear?: an empirical examination of the case of China. In: BUCKLEY, P. J. (Ed.). Foreign direct investment, China and the world economy. London: Palgrave MacMillan, 447–459.
Carlson, S. (1975). How foreign is foreign trade: a problem in international business research. Uppsala: Uppsala University Press, 1975.
Cohen, S. D. (2007). Multinational corporations and foreign direct investment: avoiding simplicity, embracing complexity. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007. 363 p.
Coronel, D. A., Azevedo, A. F. V., & Campos, A. C. (2014). Política industrial e desenvolvimento econômico: a reatualização de um debate histórico. Revista de Economia Politica, 34, 103–119. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-31572014000100007
Devlin, R., & Moguillansky, G. (2011). Breeding Latin American tigers: operational principles for rehabilitating industrial policies. Santiago: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 300 p.
Ferraz, J. C., Marques, F. S., & Júnior, A. J. (2015). A contribuição do BNDES para a política industrial brasileira: 2003-2014. In: TONI, J. de (Org.). Dez anos de política industrial: balanço e perspectivas. Brasília, DF: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial, 61–92.
Ferraz, J. C., Paula, G. M., & Kupfer, D. (2002). Política industrial. In D. Kupfer.; L. Hasenclever (Ed.). Economia industrial: fundamentos teóricos e práticas no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier, 545–567.
Ferraz, M. B. (2009). Retomando o debate: a nova política industrial do governo Lula. Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, 32(2), 227–263.
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Garcia, R., Santos, U., P., & Suzigan, W. (2020). Industrial upgrade, economic catch-up and industrial policy in Brazil: general trends and the specific case of the mining industry. Nova Economia, 30, 1089-1114. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6351/6244
Harrison, A., & Rodríguez-Clare, A. (2010). Trade, foreign investment, and industrial policy for developing countries. In D. RODRIK.; ROSENZWEIG, M. (Ed.). Handbook of development economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 4039–4198.
Hilal, A., & Hemais, C. A. (2013). O processo de internacionalização na ótica da escola nórdica: evidências empíricas em empresas brasileiras. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 7, 109-124. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-65552003000100006
Johanson, J., & Vahlne, J. (1990). The mechanisms of internationalization. International Marketing Review, 7(4), 11–24. https://doi.org/10.1108/02651339010137414
Johanson, J., & Vahlne, J. (1977). The internationalization process of the firm: a model of knowledge development and increasing market commitment. Journal of International Business Studies, 8, 23–32. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490676
Kim, K. E. Korean Development into the 21st Century: Economic, Political, and Spatial Transformation. Korean Studies, 15(1), 127–128. https://doi.org/10.1353/ks.1991.0013
Krugman, P. R. (1989). Industrial organization and international trade. In R. Schmalensee., & R. Willig (Ed.). Handbook of industrial organization. New York: Elsevier, 1-74.
Krugman, P. R. (1993). The current case for industrial policy. In D. Salvatore (Ed.). Protectionism and world welfare (pp. 160–179). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kupfer, D., Ferraz, J. C., & Marques, F. S. (2013). The return of industrial policy in Brazil. In J. STIGLITZ.; LIN, J. L. (Ed.). The industrial policy revolution: the role of government beyond ideology. New York: Palgrave McMillan, 327–339.
Lall, S., & Teubal, M. (1998). Market stimulating technology policies in developing countries: a framework with examples from East Asia. World Development, 26(8), 1369–1385. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00071-0
Laplane, M. F. (2015). A indústria ainda é o motor do crescimento?: teoria e evidências. In: Toni, J. de (Org.). Dez anos de política industrial: balanço e perspectivas. Brasília, DF: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial, 23–40.
Lazzarini, S. (2015). Strategizing by the government: can industrial policy create firm-level competitive advantage?. Strategic Management Journal, 36, 97–112. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2204
Lin, J. Y., & Monga, C. (2013). Comparative advantage: the silver bullet of industrial policy. In: Stiglitz, J. E., & Lin, J. E. (Ed.). The industrial policy revolution I: the role of government beyond ideology. New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 19-38.
Morettin, P. A., and Toloi, C. M. C. (2006). Análise de séries temporais. São Paulo: E. Blucher, 535 p.
Negri, F. D. (2009). Diagnóstico recente da política de desenvolvimento produtivo. In: Cardoso Júnior, J.C. Brasil em Desenvolvimento, Estado, Planejamento e Políticas Públicas. Brasília: IPEA.
Noman, A., & Stiglitz, J. E. (2016). Efficiency, Finance and Varieties of Industrial Policies, Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia: Challenges in Development and Globalization. Columbia University Press, New York.
O’Sullivan, E., Andreoni, A., Lopez-Gomez, C., & Gregory, M. (2013). What is new in the new industrial policy?. A Manufacturing Systems Perspective. The Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 29(2), 432–462. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23607151
OCDE. (2015). OECD-WTO Trade in Value Added. October 2015. https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/tiva/CN_2015_Brazil.pdf. Acesso em: 22 de jun de 2021.
Pack, H., & Saggi, K. (2006). Is there a case for industrial policy?: a critical survey. World Bank Research Observer, 21(2), 267–297.
Peres, W., & Primi, A. (2009). “Theory and Practice of Industrial Policy. Evidence from the Latin American Experience.” CEPAL Serie Desarrollo Productivo, 187.
Rodrik, D. (2004). Industrial policies for the twenty-first century. Cambridge: Harvard University, 2004. 57 p.
Rodrik, D. (2008). Normalizing Industrial Policy. Commission on Growth and Development, Working Paper n. 3, Washington DC.
SECINT. (2019). O que é PBM?. Disponível em: https://www.gov.br/produtividade-e-comercio-exterior/pt-br/assuntos/mdic/competitividade-industrial/certificado-form-125. Acesso em 26 de abril de 2021.
Stein, G. Q., & Herrlein Jr., R. (2016). Política Industrial no Brasil: Uma Análise das Estratégias Propostas na Experiência Recente (2003-2014). Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, 47, 251–287. http://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/7375
Stiglitz, J., Lin, J., Monga, C., & Patel, E. (2013). Industrial Policy in the Context of Africa”. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 6633.
Stumm, M. G., Nunes, W., & Perissinotto, R. (2019). Ideias, instituições e coalizões: as razões do fracasso da política industrial lulista. Revista de Economia Política, 39(4), 736–754. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572019-2978
Suzigan, W., & Furtado, J. (2006). Política industrial e desenvolvimento. Revista de Economia Política, 26(2), 163-185.
Suzigan, W., Garcia, R., & Assis Feitosa, P. H. (2020). Institutions and industrial policy in Brazil after two decades: have we built the needed institutions? Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2020.1719629
De Toni, J. (2015). Dez anos de política industrial: balanço e perspectivas. Brasília, DF: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial. 194 p.
UNCTAD. (2015). World Investment Report 2015. Reforming International Investment Governance. https://unctad.org/webflyer/world-investment-report-2015. Acesso em 26 de abril de 2021.
Viglioni, M. T. D., Calegario, C. L. L. (2020). Home country innovation performance: Moderating the local knowledge and inward Foreign Direct Investment. Global Business Review, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150920920778
Wooldridge, J. M. (2011). Introdução à econometria: uma abordagem moderna. 4.ed. São Paulo: Cengage Learning, 725 p.
Wu, P. Y., Zhu, X., & Groenewold, N. (2019). The determinants and effectiveness of industrial policy in china: A study based on Five-Year. China Economic Review, 53, 225–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.09.010
Aitken, B., & Harrison, A. (1999). Do domestic firms benefit from direct foreign investment? evidence from Venezuela. American Economic Review, Pittsburg, 89(3), 605–618.
Alcântara, J. N., Paiva, C. M. N., Bruhn, N. C. P., Carvalho, H. R., & Calegario, C. L. L. (2016). Brazilian OFDI Determinants. Latin American Business Review, 17(3), 177–205. https://doi.org/10.1080/10978526.2016.1209080
Bianchi, P., & Labory, S. (2019). Manufacturing regimes and transitional paths: Lessons for industrial policy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 48, 24–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2017.10.003
Borgatto, A. F., & Sáfadi, T. (2000). Análise de intervenção em séries temporais: aplicações em transporte urbano. Revista Brasileira de Estatística, 61(215), 81-102. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1413-70542004000100019
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. (1976). Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Oakland: Holden-Day, 712 p.
Brandão, C. (2015). Processo de industrialização e disparidades inter-regionais no Brasil: a necessidade do diálogo entre as políticas industriais e as políticas regionais. In: Toni, J. de (Org.). Dez anos de política industrial: balanço e perspectivas. Brasília, DF: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial, 93-112.
Buckley, P. J., Clegg, J., & Wang, C. (2010). Is the relationship between inward FDI spillover effects linear?: an empirical examination of the case of China. In: BUCKLEY, P. J. (Ed.). Foreign direct investment, China and the world economy. London: Palgrave MacMillan, 447–459.
Carlson, S. (1975). How foreign is foreign trade: a problem in international business research. Uppsala: Uppsala University Press, 1975.
Cohen, S. D. (2007). Multinational corporations and foreign direct investment: avoiding simplicity, embracing complexity. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007. 363 p.
Coronel, D. A., Azevedo, A. F. V., & Campos, A. C. (2014). Política industrial e desenvolvimento econômico: a reatualização de um debate histórico. Revista de Economia Politica, 34, 103–119. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-31572014000100007
Devlin, R., & Moguillansky, G. (2011). Breeding Latin American tigers: operational principles for rehabilitating industrial policies. Santiago: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 300 p.
Ferraz, J. C., Marques, F. S., & Júnior, A. J. (2015). A contribuição do BNDES para a política industrial brasileira: 2003-2014. In: TONI, J. de (Org.). Dez anos de política industrial: balanço e perspectivas. Brasília, DF: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial, 61–92.
Ferraz, J. C., Paula, G. M., & Kupfer, D. (2002). Política industrial. In D. Kupfer.; L. Hasenclever (Ed.). Economia industrial: fundamentos teóricos e práticas no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier, 545–567.
Ferraz, M. B. (2009). Retomando o debate: a nova política industrial do governo Lula. Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, 32(2), 227–263.
Furtado, J. (2002). Sistematização do debate sobre política industrial. In: CASTRO, A. C. (Org.). Desenvolvimento em debate: painéis do desenvolvimento brasileiro, In painel política industrial. Rio de Janeiro: BNDES, 133-154.
Garcia, R., Santos, U., P., & Suzigan, W. (2020). Industrial upgrade, economic catch-up and industrial policy in Brazil: general trends and the specific case of the mining industry. Nova Economia, 30, 1089-1114. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-6351/6244
Harrison, A., & Rodríguez-Clare, A. (2010). Trade, foreign investment, and industrial policy for developing countries. In D. RODRIK.; ROSENZWEIG, M. (Ed.). Handbook of development economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 4039–4198.
Hilal, A., & Hemais, C. A. (2013). O processo de internacionalização na ótica da escola nórdica: evidências empíricas em empresas brasileiras. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 7, 109-124. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-65552003000100006
Johanson, J., & Vahlne, J. (1990). The mechanisms of internationalization. International Marketing Review, 7(4), 11–24. https://doi.org/10.1108/02651339010137414
Johanson, J., & Vahlne, J. (1977). The internationalization process of the firm: a model of knowledge development and increasing market commitment. Journal of International Business Studies, 8, 23–32. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490676
Kim, K. E. Korean Development into the 21st Century: Economic, Political, and Spatial Transformation. Korean Studies, 15(1), 127–128. https://doi.org/10.1353/ks.1991.0013
Krugman, P. R. (1989). Industrial organization and international trade. In R. Schmalensee., & R. Willig (Ed.). Handbook of industrial organization. New York: Elsevier, 1-74.
Krugman, P. R. (1993). The current case for industrial policy. In D. Salvatore (Ed.). Protectionism and world welfare (pp. 160–179). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kupfer, D., Ferraz, J. C., & Marques, F. S. (2013). The return of industrial policy in Brazil. In J. STIGLITZ.; LIN, J. L. (Ed.). The industrial policy revolution: the role of government beyond ideology. New York: Palgrave McMillan, 327–339.
Lall, S., & Teubal, M. (1998). Market stimulating technology policies in developing countries: a framework with examples from East Asia. World Development, 26(8), 1369–1385. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00071-0
Laplane, M. F. (2015). A indústria ainda é o motor do crescimento?: teoria e evidências. In: Toni, J. de (Org.). Dez anos de política industrial: balanço e perspectivas. Brasília, DF: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial, 23–40.
Lazzarini, S. (2015). Strategizing by the government: can industrial policy create firm-level competitive advantage?. Strategic Management Journal, 36, 97–112. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2204
Lin, J. Y., & Monga, C. (2013). Comparative advantage: the silver bullet of industrial policy. In: Stiglitz, J. E., & Lin, J. E. (Ed.). The industrial policy revolution I: the role of government beyond ideology. New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 19-38.
Morettin, P. A., and Toloi, C. M. C. (2006). Análise de séries temporais. São Paulo: E. Blucher, 535 p.
Negri, F. D. (2009). Diagnóstico recente da política de desenvolvimento produtivo. In: Cardoso Júnior, J.C. Brasil em Desenvolvimento, Estado, Planejamento e Políticas Públicas. Brasília: IPEA.
Noman, A., & Stiglitz, J. E. (2016). Efficiency, Finance and Varieties of Industrial Policies, Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia: Challenges in Development and Globalization. Columbia University Press, New York.
O’Sullivan, E., Andreoni, A., Lopez-Gomez, C., & Gregory, M. (2013). What is new in the new industrial policy?. A Manufacturing Systems Perspective. The Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 29(2), 432–462. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23607151
OCDE. (2015). OECD-WTO Trade in Value Added. October 2015. https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/tiva/CN_2015_Brazil.pdf. Acesso em: 22 de jun de 2021.
Pack, H., & Saggi, K. (2006). Is there a case for industrial policy?: a critical survey. World Bank Research Observer, 21(2), 267–297.
Peres, W., & Primi, A. (2009). “Theory and Practice of Industrial Policy. Evidence from the Latin American Experience.” CEPAL Serie Desarrollo Productivo, 187.
Rodrik, D. (2004). Industrial policies for the twenty-first century. Cambridge: Harvard University, 2004. 57 p.
Rodrik, D. (2008). Normalizing Industrial Policy. Commission on Growth and Development, Working Paper n. 3, Washington DC.
SECINT. (2019). O que é PBM?. Disponível em: https://www.gov.br/produtividade-e-comercio-exterior/pt-br/assuntos/mdic/competitividade-industrial/certificado-form-125. Acesso em 26 de abril de 2021.
Stein, G. Q., & Herrlein Jr., R. (2016). Política Industrial no Brasil: Uma Análise das Estratégias Propostas na Experiência Recente (2003-2014). Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, 47, 251–287. http://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/7375
Stiglitz, J., Lin, J., Monga, C., & Patel, E. (2013). Industrial Policy in the Context of Africa”. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 6633.
Stumm, M. G., Nunes, W., & Perissinotto, R. (2019). Ideias, instituições e coalizões: as razões do fracasso da política industrial lulista. Revista de Economia Política, 39(4), 736–754. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572019-2978
Suzigan, W., & Furtado, J. (2006). Política industrial e desenvolvimento. Revista de Economia Política, 26(2), 163-185.
Suzigan, W., Garcia, R., & Assis Feitosa, P. H. (2020). Institutions and industrial policy in Brazil after two decades: have we built the needed institutions? Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2020.1719629
De Toni, J. (2015). Dez anos de política industrial: balanço e perspectivas. Brasília, DF: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial. 194 p.
UNCTAD. (2015). World Investment Report 2015. Reforming International Investment Governance. https://unctad.org/webflyer/world-investment-report-2015. Acesso em 26 de abril de 2021.
Viglioni, M. T. D., Calegario, C. L. L. (2020). Home country innovation performance: Moderating the local knowledge and inward Foreign Direct Investment. Global Business Review, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150920920778
Wooldridge, J. M. (2011). Introdução à econometria: uma abordagem moderna. 4.ed. São Paulo: Cengage Learning, 725 p.
Wu, P. Y., Zhu, X., & Groenewold, N. (2019). The determinants and effectiveness of industrial policy in china: A study based on Five-Year. China Economic Review, 53, 225–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.09.010
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Published
2022-05-23
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Campos Pereira Bruhn, N. ., dos Santos Faria, L. ., & Viglioni, M. T. D. (2022). Política industrial e internacionalização: um estudo dos efeitos da intervenção estatal na internacionalização brasileira. Revista De Economia Mackenzie, 19(1), 296–320. Retrieved from http://editorarevistas.mackenzie.br/index.php/rem/article/view/15226
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